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    面向世界科技前沿,面向国家重大需求,面向国民经济主战场,率先实现科学技术跨越发展,率先建成国家创新人才高地,率先建成国家高水平科技智库,率先建设国际一流科研机构。

    ——中国科学院办院方针

    首页 > 每日科学

    成功一半靠运气

    2019-09-30 中国科学报 宗华
    【字体:

    语音播报

      一个人的事业成功在多大程度上是运气使然?最新研究显示,大约一半是运气使然。

      丹麦哥本哈根信息技术大学的Roberta Sinatra和同事测量了运气和个人能力在创造性作品的成功中所起的作用。这些作品包括电影、歌曲、书籍和科学研究论文。他们将此作为事业成功的象征。

      研究人员分析了来自出版、电影和音乐行业以及15个科学领域的400多万人的作品。他们根据电影或书籍在互联网电影资料库(IMBD)或读书类社区网站Goodreads上的评论数量,以及歌曲在全球在线音乐服务网站LastFM上播放的次数来量化影响。该团队还查看了Web of Science数据库里的8740万篇研究论文,并根据一篇文章发表后10年内被引用的次数衡量其影响力。

      通过观察作品成功在时机和程度方面的随机波动,研究人员使用一个被称为R的随机指数,提出了一个不同职业通常涉及的粗略运气估测值。诸如轮盘赌等完全基于运气的活动,其R值为1。

      在他们研究的所有领域中,运气似乎有着相对一致的影响,最大差异仅为5%。

      在音乐行业,电子音乐艺人最需要运气(0.546),古典音乐家最不需要运气(0.507)。在电影行业,则是电影制作人最需要运气(0.545)。在科学领域,天文学的成功与运气的关系最大(0.55),而计算机科学与运气的关系最?。?.517)。

      Sinatra表示,他们的目标是建立一个职业生涯内成功的起伏模型。不过,她认为,不同行业在运气上的差异不需要太过当真。

      此前研究发现,一个人职业生涯中最大的成功—— 一首热门歌曲、一本畅销书——随时都可能出现。

      为考虑个人能力,Sinatra团队还使用因子Q来捕捉一个人的工作在整个职业生涯中产生的典型影响。

      Q分数高的人更容易持续成功。其中,克里斯托弗·诺兰是Q分最高的电影导演和编剧。

    打印 责任编辑:侯茜
    • “第九行星”或为黑洞
    • 人造“夜明珠”材料取得新突破

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